The Election That Won't Die
Tuesday May 3, 2005
In Washington State, the Republican challenge to the election of Democrat Christine Gregoire as governor has moved one step closer to a trial date. Wenatchee (north central Washington) Judge John Bridges ruled on 2 May that he would consider statistical analysis (aka mathematical predictions) that estimates how many illegal votes were cast for each candidate in the governor's race. Republicans claim that their candidate, Dino Rossi, would have won had convicted felons not voted illegally.
The judge agreed that Democrats could also present a case that illegal votes helped Republicans. To assert that a vote was cast illegally, either party must present "clear and convincing" evidence: 1) the voter was convicted as an adult 2) of a felony; 3) the voter did not receive a deferred sentence; 4) the voter has not had voting rights restored; 5) the voter cast a ballot in the November election; 6) the voter cast a ballot in the gubernatorial race. To meet point five, the parties must produce a copy of the voter's signature, whether on an absentee ballot envelope or a county roll.
Republicans want to use something called proportional deduction to determine how each illegal vote was cast. They are expected to bring in experts to testify that the illegal votes in any precinct should be divided between Rossi and Gregoire to reflect the overall vote of the precinct. Gregoire won the election by a margin of 129 votes.
In other words, if Rossi received 49 percent of a precinct vote and Gregoire 51 percent, that's how the votes should be assigned. There is no mention in news reports of what to do with "partial" votes (the odds of this method producing whole numbers is slim to none) -- and given the close nature of this election, that is nothing to quibble at (round up, round down).
The trial is slated to begin 23 May. Judge Bridges will hold a separate hearing on the statistical allocation of votes.
See Reuters, Seattle Times, Seattle PI, USA Today
The judge agreed that Democrats could also present a case that illegal votes helped Republicans. To assert that a vote was cast illegally, either party must present "clear and convincing" evidence: 1) the voter was convicted as an adult 2) of a felony; 3) the voter did not receive a deferred sentence; 4) the voter has not had voting rights restored; 5) the voter cast a ballot in the November election; 6) the voter cast a ballot in the gubernatorial race. To meet point five, the parties must produce a copy of the voter's signature, whether on an absentee ballot envelope or a county roll.
Republicans want to use something called proportional deduction to determine how each illegal vote was cast. They are expected to bring in experts to testify that the illegal votes in any precinct should be divided between Rossi and Gregoire to reflect the overall vote of the precinct. Gregoire won the election by a margin of 129 votes.
In other words, if Rossi received 49 percent of a precinct vote and Gregoire 51 percent, that's how the votes should be assigned. There is no mention in news reports of what to do with "partial" votes (the odds of this method producing whole numbers is slim to none) -- and given the close nature of this election, that is nothing to quibble at (round up, round down).
The trial is slated to begin 23 May. Judge Bridges will hold a separate hearing on the statistical allocation of votes.
See Reuters, Seattle Times, Seattle PI, USA Today
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