Ophelia Bears Down on Carolinas
Saturday September 10, 2005
Demonstrating the fallacy that New Orleans, Louisiana or FEMA officials could have reasonably begun forced evacuation of the city on Friday or Saturday before Katrina's Monday morning landfall, the latest (11 am Saturday) forecast has Charleston, SC; Wilmington, NC; and Myrtle Beach, SC as Hurricane Ophelia's most likely targets (21-23 percent probability of passing within 65 nautical miles by 8 am Tuesday). By comparison, the
comparable forecast for New Orleans showed it had a
19 percent probability. Political "Monday morning quarterbacking" revealed.
The official strike forecast is for the South Carolina and North Carolina coast, from the Savannah River to Cape Lookout, NC a distance of approximately 400 miles. Even if Ophelia were a Category 4 Hurricane, scheduled for landfall on Tuesday morning, what areas would you evacuate today? How do the governors of North and South Carolina coordinate? (Katrina suggests there is no formal system for coordination.) Does the Governor of Georgia need to worry about Savannah (16%) or should the Governor of Virginia concern himself about Norfolk (9%) ?
Major hurricanes that have hit the South Carolina coast include the Hurricane of 1893 (relief effort headed by Clara Barton, founder of the Red Cross) ; Hurricane Hugo (1989) and Hurricane Floyd (1999). Floyd hit North Carolina the hardest; from Florida to Virginia, more than 2 million people evacuated (a tiny percent of the total living along the coast, however), reportedly the "nation's largest peacetime evacuation.... The hurricane warning was issued for the coast of North Carolina at 0300 UTC 15 September. This is about 26-27 hours prior to the arrival of the eyewall in the Cape Fear area."
Technorati Tags:
Hurricane Ophelia, North Carolina, Politics
The official strike forecast is for the South Carolina and North Carolina coast, from the Savannah River to Cape Lookout, NC a distance of approximately 400 miles. Even if Ophelia were a Category 4 Hurricane, scheduled for landfall on Tuesday morning, what areas would you evacuate today? How do the governors of North and South Carolina coordinate? (Katrina suggests there is no formal system for coordination.) Does the Governor of Georgia need to worry about Savannah (16%) or should the Governor of Virginia concern himself about Norfolk (9%) ?
Major hurricanes that have hit the South Carolina coast include the Hurricane of 1893 (relief effort headed by Clara Barton, founder of the Red Cross) ; Hurricane Hugo (1989) and Hurricane Floyd (1999). Floyd hit North Carolina the hardest; from Florida to Virginia, more than 2 million people evacuated (a tiny percent of the total living along the coast, however), reportedly the "nation's largest peacetime evacuation.... The hurricane warning was issued for the coast of North Carolina at 0300 UTC 15 September. This is about 26-27 hours prior to the arrival of the eyewall in the Cape Fear area."
Technorati Tags:
Hurricane Ophelia, North Carolina, Politics