Wilma Headed to Florida (update 7)

Updated 1.45 am PDT
Hurricane Wilma, still a category 3 storm, is moving at 20 mph and is headed slightly less easterly than prior forecasts. There is a 71 percent chance of hitting Ft. Meyers, 81 percent for Key West, and 99 percent for Marco Island. On the east coast, it's 81 percent for West Palm Beach and 75 percent for Miami.

As of 11 pm EDT Sunday, Hurricane Wilma had become a Category 3 storm, moving about 18 mph towards southwest Florida. Hurricane force winds extend 85 miles from the center of the storm.

Wilma left behind devastation in Mexico. The numbers were mind-numbing: ocean waters covering the third floor of seaside hotels in Cancun; reports of rain in nearby Isla Mujeres of 2-4 feet in 24 hours.

In Florida, fewer than 10 percent of Key residents have reportedly evacuated. FEMA reportedly has 1,000 people in Florida and supplies stashed at Homestead Air Force base in south Miami-Dade County. Testimony before Congress last week suggested there was only one FEMA representative in New Orleans and no advance supplies, despite earlier assertions to the contrary.

And a record-breaking 22nd named storm, Alpha, formed in the Caribbean on Saturday.

Updated 12.26 am PDT - Sat
The edge of Wilma's eye made landfall about 4.30 pm Friday, enveloping Cozumel, just off the Yucatan coast; the storm remains a category 4, with hurricane force winds extending 85 miles from the eye. The storm is moving very slowly and may result in up to 40 inches of rain. The largest city in the region is Cancun, located in Quintana Roo, the fastest growing state in Mexico. In the past 10 years, development has increased the numbers of seafront hotels and caused Cancun's population to grow to more than 500,000.

Updated 1.26 am PDT - Fri
Hurricane Wilma has maintained Category 4 level winds as she approaches Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, where she is expected to pass over Cozumel early Friday morning and then turn towards Florida. Winds remain at 150 mph with gusts up to 184 mph, but it is possible that she could become a Category 5 hurricane before hitting Cozumel. Hurricane force winds extend 85 miles from the center of the storm, which is moving at about 6 mph.

Forecasters expect Wilma to hit southwest Florida on 23 or 24 October. The most probable location is the Keys, but the public advisory also suggest residents of the Florida panhandle should "closely monitor" the progress of the storm. Heavy rains could drench the eastern seaboard the first of next week. The Northeast is only beginning to dry out from record rains last week.

Updated 12.20 am PDT - Th
Hurricane Wilma has been downgraded to a category 4 hurricane, but remains extremely dangerous as she takes aim for Cancun, Mexico. Wilma's projected path includes a jog to the right after exiting the straight between Cuba and Mexico because of a cold front which should hit the Gulf by Saturday.

Although the projected path puts the Florida Keys in the sights of the hurricane, southeastern cities like Miami are also at risk. Florida directed the 80,000 residents of the Keys to evacuate on Thursday.

Updated 11.10 am PDT - Wed
The Florida Keys are again being evacuated, tourists first, in anticipation that record-setting Hurricane Wilma could hit southwestern Florida this weekend. Hurricane Wilma has become is a Category 5 hurricane and the most powerful storm ever measured in the Atlantic Basin, based on a minimum central pressure of 884 mb.

According to ABC, the state is ready:

[Florida] routinely replenishes emergency supplies of water, food and ice at staging points so no additional action is needed, emergency management spokesman Mike Stone said earlier. Supermarkets and home-repair chains stocked extra food, ice and other supplies.

On 11 am Tuesday, NOAA reported that Wilma had transitioned from a tropical storm to a category 1 hurricane (winds of at least 74 mph); by 2.30 am Wednesday, winds were near 175 mph and she was declared a category 5 hurricane. This rapid escalation of power trumps that of Hurricane Rita, which figuratively burnt herself out before landfall. Likewise, Wilma is expected to make landfall as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.

NOAA advises us to use the pressure data "with caution" until it has been calibrated. A hurricane watch is in effect for Cuba and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. At 5 am EDT, Wilma was about 170 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman and 370 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico and is moving west-northwest.

NOAA projects that Wilma will pass through the straight separating Cancun, Mexico and Cuba early Friday morning. (map) She is then expected to move northeast and hit the southwestern side of Florida. All projections are preliminary and possibly fraught with error. And, NOAA notes,"Hurricanes at this magnitude don't often hold their strength." Once you hit "the top" so to speak, there is no where to go but down.

Prior Wilma coverage; Katrina Timeline; Side-by-Side: Katrina and Rita.

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