Even 400,000 Troops Not Enough: 1999 Report

Lost in November 2006 election coverage:

In 1999, 70 military, diplomatic and intelligence officials "anticipated an invasion of Iraq would require 400,000 troops, and even then chaos might ensue." In November, the federal government released information about the secret war games after a Freedom of Information Act (FOI) request from the George Washington University's National Security Archive. (tip)

"The conventional wisdom is the U.S. mistake in Iraq was not enough troops," said Thomas Blanton, the archive's director. "But the Desert Crossing war game in 1999 suggests we would have ended up with a failed state even with 400,000 troops on the ground."...

The war games looked at "worst case" and "most likely" scenarios after a war that removed then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power. Some are similar to what actually occurred after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

In November, there were approximately 140,000 American troops and 18,000 coalition troops in Iraq. The ratio of active to reserve troops is unknown.