Is the Surge Working? Data Suggest "No"
We need to press people -- elected officials or pundits -- to detail what they mean when they say "the surge working." Because by many measures, it isn't.
US Deaths: Up
The first seven months of 2007 saw about a 50 percent increase in US military deaths compared with the 10 months of occupation in 2003. At the current death rate, 50 percent more US soldiers will die this year than each of the past three. See US Military Deaths In Iraq By Month, By Year.
Iraqi Military and Police Deaths: Up
President Bush announced the surge in January. Comparing the deaths of Iraqi military and police February-July 2006 and the same period in 2007 shows this: more Iraqis are dying this year than last. See Iraqi Military and Police Killed.
Deaths By IEDs: Up
March-July 2007 US military deaths from improvised explosive devices is up compared to the same period in 2006. Moreover, a new record (82) was set in May. More than half of US fatalities are from IEDs. For the same period last year, it was about 40 percent. See Deaths From Improvised Explosive Devices.
Multiple Fatality Bombings: Mixed
There were 31 multiple fatality bombings by vehicle in January, 30 in July. What has declined is instances of personal suicide bombings (such as vests) -- there were seven in January, three in July. See Multiple Fatality Bombings In Iraq.
However, the second-worst terrorist (or genocide) attack in modern times occurred in August when car bombs killed more than 400 Yazidis, a Kurdish ethnic (and religious) minority in northern Iraq. "The toll is expected to rise," according to Iraq's director of operations at the interior ministry.
There has been almost no mention of the bombings in US media. The Yazidis "follow a pre-Islamic faith which instills belief in God the creator and respects the Biblical and Quranic prophets."
The two villages destroyed by the bombings were "formed after the residents' original homes were destroyed in Saddam Hussein's 1988 military campaign against the Kurds."
History reminder: the US provided military and monetary support to Hussein before and after Hussein gassed the Kurds because they were rebelling to create a separate state. (To most Americans, this act should fall under the classification of "civil war.") Moreover, "President Bush I encouraged the Kurds to rebel against Saddam Hussein and then stood by while Saddam crushed the rebellion, ruthlessly."
The Foreign Policy Research Institute writes:
The Shiites and Kurds called to rebel by President Bush began revenging themselves on their oppressors, frightening the Sunnis into support of the regime. The Republican Guard units and secret police, ferried about by helicopter, began serial massacres of the rebellious population, while the Americans did not intervene.
We are Lady MacBeth.
Iraqi Government Progress
One argument given to justify the surge - or to continue it - is to give the Iraqi government "breathing room." But that doesn't seem to be working, either. The most recent National Intelligence Estimate confirms the data in these charts and adds:
The level of overall violence . . . remains high; Iraq's sectarian groups remain unreconciled . . . and to date Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively.
Moreover, no matter how many times we are told this it is, the violence and discord is not the work of Al Qaeda: "according to U.S. intelligence information that was not part of the declassified judgments, its actions represent a minor source of violence inside Iraq -- less than 10 percent of the approximately 1,000 incidents a week."
There you have it. Based on some common sense definitions of "working," the surge isn't.