(Political) Eyes on New Hampshire

American media are treating the presidential campaign as though we were in the last 1/16 mile of the race, not the first. Iowa and New Hampshire aren't really like the first two races of the Triple Crown, and they aren't match races, either. The horse -- or candidate -- that breaks first from the gate, or leads at the first turn, doesn't always win. But you'd not know that based on campaign press coverage.

The Boston Herald is backing Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and only McCain. No Democratic candidate endorsement. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is leading in the delegate count and has very deep (financial) pockets. Iowa winner former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee speaks a different language from that in independent-minded New Hampshire; Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) might sport a message closer to the Yankee fiscal ethic. The question is this: will either (or both) outsider poll better than in-the-neighborhood former NY Mayor Rudy Giuliani?

Over on the blue side of the aisle, Sen. Barack Obama (IL) is surfing a wave of optimism prompted by his Iowa win. Will the wave hold? Polls suggest yes, and, if independents turn out en masse, the polls could be prophetic. An estimated one-fourth of Americans call themselves "independent" (ie, not Democratic or Republican) and they seem ready for a change in the White House.

For months, pundits have positioned Obama against Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY), all the while using words like "invincible" while describing Clinton. Her invincibility could very well go the way of former VP Al Gore's -- really smart policy wonks don't seem to get to the White House too often these days. Former Sen. John Edwards (NC) has to fight the press label of pretty boy and a media-nurtured distrust of trial lawyers.

But if Obama and Romney win, is it inevitable that they will take their respective nominations? No. But a decisive win on 5 February would.

Here's the breakdown of primary delegates. Democrats have 4,040 and Republicans have 2,345.

• 3 January, Iowa
  Democratic, 57; Republican, 40 (non-binding)
• 5 January, Wyoming
  Republican, 14 (GOP cut in half)
• 8 January, New Hampshire
  Democratic, 30; Republican, 12
• 15 January, Michigan
  Democratic, 0 (stripped by party); Republican, 30 (GOP cut in half)
• 19 January, Nevada
  Democratic, 33; Republican, 34
• 19 January, South Carolina
  Republican, 24
• 26 January, South Carolina
  Democratic, 54
• 29 January, Florida
  Democratic, 0 (stripped by party); Republican, 57 (GOP cut in half)
• 1 February, Maine
  Republican, 21
• 5 February, multi-state Super Primary
  Democratic, 2,075; Republican, 1,081

Thus, one month after the primary season begins, both parties will be about half-way through delegate selection.

At that point in the process, media winner punditry may be less like influencing events and more like reporting them. But much of what passes for reporting today isn't. For example, one news report (not analysis) suggested Edwards was dead in the water because he had not won Iowa -- even though he came in second and polled a third of the votes. Another labeled Ron Paul viable, even though he polled 1-in-10 and came in sixth fifth!

Here are the results for Iowa and New Hampshire for the last two decades:

Democrats

Republicans

More information about the candidates and the primary:

• NH Candidates on Terrorism
• How The New Hampshire Primary Works
• 2008 Election Central
• 2008 Primary Calendar
• The Electoral College