Democratic Face-Off in South Carolina
Polling data (Real Clear Politics, Zogby) show Barack Obama in the lead, but his support may be softening. Obama is the favorite among African American voters, expected to account for up to 60 percent of primary voters.
But John Edwards has shown gains in the past three days. Edwards has raised more than $3 million this month (the Ron Paul of the Democrats?) from online donations and is the only southerner in the mix. (And can you imagine either Clinton or Obama in blue jeans?)
Pundits have been arguing about the role of race and gender in this primary. CBS has some data from earlier this month, and it doesn't look good for the Clinton camp (tip):
We asked voters in South Carolina a different pair of questions -- whether “all things being equal” they would rather vote for a man or a woman for president, and whether or not they would rather vote for someone of their own race.
Nearly nine in ten said a candidate’s race didn’t matter ... [but] [o]ne in four voters in South Carolina said they would rather vote for a man -- and on that question it didn’t matter whether or not the respondents themselves were men or women... Hardly any women -- or men, for that matter -- said they would prefer to vote for a woman...
[B]lack voters overall were less likely than white voters to say either race or gender mattered. But 11 percent of white Democratic primary voters said all things being equal, they would rather vote for a candidate of their own race, much like the answers from all voters. Thirteen percent of those same voters said they would rather vote for a man. But among those South Carolina Democrats, it was white women - 17 percent of them - who admitted they preferred to vote for a man; only 6 percent said they would prefer voting for a woman.
The historic symbolism of the Obama and Clinton campaigns hurt Edwards:
Constance Kilgore voted for John Edwards four years ago... "Edwards? He's good also," said Ms. Kilgore, a high school janitor who traveled to the State House from Spartanburg, an hour and a half away. "But on account of Miss Clinton being a woman and Obama being an African-American, it's different now."
Pundits want the race to be a match event (only two contenders) and that's how the national media are playing the race. Watch them (the two MSM favorites) in this YouTube commercial from Edwards (the footage is straight from this week's debate).
Now hear this! A candidate needs 2,025 delegates to take the nomination. Less than 5% of the delegates have been awarded to date; the current delegate count (not super-delegates) follows:
- Clinton - 36
- Edwards - 18
- Obama - 38
Don't let anyone convince you that this race is a done deal because Clinton has a lead in the super-delegate contest. Those super-delegates can switch in a heart-beat. Just ask Howard Dean.
See How does the South Carolina primary work?. Follow real-time results at the South Carolina Democratic Party website or with MSNBC Exit Polls.
PS: Please chime in if you can help me understand how the mantle of "change" has been awarded to Obama, when his policies and funding sources are more mainstream than Edwards. I don't get it.
Comments
Kathy writes, “PS: Please chime in if you can help me understand how the mantle of ‘change’ has been awarded to Obama, when his policies and funding sources are more mainstream than Edwards. I don’t get it.”
Shouldn’t this part of your news post be labeled OpEd?
note in spanish/thank you
______________________________
Estimada
Sra. Katty Gill
About.com: US POLITICS
CAROLINA OF SOUTH STATE
UNITED STATE OF NORTH AMERICA
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Saludos cordiales, felicitar su informacion detallada en Carolina del Sur y como quedo las encuestas en este bello estado americano.
Tanto Obama y Hillary Clinton del mismo partido deberian llegar a un concenso y esta unidos por trabajar y no de esta forma ojo Kathy que no hay sintomas de racismo ni otros adjetivos desmerecedores. sino se apela a la sentatez y alejarse de las emociones y glamoures reinvidicativos… lo que va a suceder y la hecatombe y detruccion de lo que se ha logrado y que necesita un relevo con otras caractreisticas sin destruir lo logrado…. Obama por curioso que sea para el sector de color americano, muchos empresas de negros tendran que cerrar sus empresas hay cierto sector que no los apoya y son el grueso de la economia negra. ahora bien a nivel internacional hay movida de alto riesgo tanto Putin-Hugo Chavez- Zapatero-Kirchner- Lula- Iran-Siria prefieren a Obama (?) y estan frotandose las manos y eso no lo sabe la comunidad negra de la desgracia que va a traer e USA…. jamas visto… lointeligente es que Obama deje la alternativa a la experiencia tactica que necesita USA tanto a nivel nacional e internacional… de ahi que no sea muy dado al glamour sin que termine todo esto y a trabajar eso es Hillary Clinton… no es simpatia sino que es un factor palanca que se sumaria a otros gobiernos democraticos que estan en lucha abierta contra este eje del mal como le dije son: RUSIA-HUGO CHAVEZ-ZAPATERO-KIRCHNER-LULA-CUBA-CHINA-IRAN-SIRIA… y es URGENTE una gestion gubernamental juridica de intervencion rapida y eso es lo que adolece OBAMA… con los respetos a este chaval pero puede esperar y la comunidad de color americano `puede respirar tranquilidad en sus negocios y desarrollo social y hasta puede ser en especial mencion un gestor de prioridades de los de su raza en USA… es de agradecer a esta comunidad de grandes logros deportivos y eso es un gran sector que OBAMA puede fomentar sin drogas… la Sra. Hillary Clinton muy conocedora de todos los entuertos de este eje tiene la capacidad de actuar con el rigor y defensa de los intereses USA al 100% y ser un aliado entre los G8… ademas ya reune trabajos en el silencio de gran proyeccion y que tambien es de agradecer.. es como si dijeramos una generosidad por adelantado… sin ninguna pretensiones solo que le gusta su trabajo… y eso ha de valorar toda la NACION NORTEAMERICAMA 2008. mirar mas por la seguridad nacional y de los aliados… comunicar esta inquietud en foros o em mesa redonda de TV para analizar y visualizar… un inexperto en Casa Blanca es lo que prefieren los del eje del mal en estos monentos…
Hi, Deborah … not an editorial comment but a question. There is an interesting discussion at the USP Forum.
Ranger … no idea what you’ve said, but I’ll leave it.
Looks like you’re employing a Fox “newz” strategy where they ask questions in their chyrons (the little graphics at the bottom of the screen) where they may ask inane questions like, “Do Democrats support terrorists?”, or “Is Hillary Clinton evil incarnate?”.
That way, Fox and you can deny having ever implied anything but rather say, “Hey, just asking question!!!”.
Imagine your outrage if I asked someone on the forum, “Hey, do you beat your molest your daughter?”
Hey, it’s just a question!!!