Democratic Face-Off in South Carolina
Polling data (Real Clear Politics, Zogby) show Barack Obama in the lead, but his support may be softening. Obama is the favorite among African American voters, expected to account for up to 60 percent of primary voters.
But John Edwards has shown gains in the past three days. Edwards has raised more than $3 million this month (the Ron Paul of the Democrats?) from online donations and is the only southerner in the mix. (And can you imagine either Clinton or Obama in blue jeans?)
Pundits have been arguing about the role of race and gender in this primary. CBS has some data from earlier this month, and it doesn't look good for the Clinton camp (tip):
We asked voters in South Carolina a different pair of questions -- whether “all things being equal” they would rather vote for a man or a woman for president, and whether or not they would rather vote for someone of their own race.
Nearly nine in ten said a candidate’s race didn’t matter ... [but] [o]ne in four voters in South Carolina said they would rather vote for a man -- and on that question it didn’t matter whether or not the respondents themselves were men or women... Hardly any women -- or men, for that matter -- said they would prefer to vote for a woman...
[B]lack voters overall were less likely than white voters to say either race or gender mattered. But 11 percent of white Democratic primary voters said all things being equal, they would rather vote for a candidate of their own race, much like the answers from all voters. Thirteen percent of those same voters said they would rather vote for a man. But among those South Carolina Democrats, it was white women - 17 percent of them - who admitted they preferred to vote for a man; only 6 percent said they would prefer voting for a woman.
The historic symbolism of the Obama and Clinton campaigns hurt Edwards:
Constance Kilgore voted for John Edwards four years ago... "Edwards? He's good also," said Ms. Kilgore, a high school janitor who traveled to the State House from Spartanburg, an hour and a half away. "But on account of Miss Clinton being a woman and Obama being an African-American, it's different now."
Pundits want the race to be a match event (only two contenders) and that's how the national media are playing the race. Watch them (the two MSM favorites) in this YouTube commercial from Edwards (the footage is straight from this week's debate).
Now hear this! A candidate needs 2,025 delegates to take the nomination. Less than 5% of the delegates have been awarded to date; the current delegate count (not super-delegates) follows:
- Clinton - 36
- Edwards - 18
- Obama - 38
Don't let anyone convince you that this race is a done deal because Clinton has a lead in the super-delegate contest. Those super-delegates can switch in a heart-beat. Just ask Howard Dean.
See How does the South Carolina primary work?. Follow real-time results at the South Carolina Democratic Party website or with MSNBC Exit Polls.
PS: Please chime in if you can help me understand how the mantle of "change" has been awarded to Obama, when his policies and funding sources are more mainstream than Edwards. I don't get it.