Little did I know that four years later I would be living there, serving as a liaison between urban Philly and rural dairy farmers, reuniting with the agricultural culture that I thought I'd left behind when I escaped rural south Georgia.
It's hard for me to imagine what's going through the minds of voters and politicos as the eyes of the nation -- and the world -- focus on Tuesday's historical primary. This is the first time since Jimmy Carter clinched the nomination here in 1976 that the Philadelphia primary has been meaningful. This contest is over 158 pledged delegates (55 at-large and 103 by Congressional District) -- but it's also about perception.
Take a look at the delegate chart: the candidates, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama, are separated by approximately 7%. The super-delegates are not bound by anything but their conscience; they can change their minds anytime -- so those numbers are very soft. Plus, almost half haven't publicly committed to either candidate.
Even more important -- and overlooked. "Pledged" delegates are bound only on the first vote: If neither candidate achieves a majority of the first vote on the Democratic Convention floor, delegates are released from their original preference and allowed to vote for whomever they please. Just like super-delegates.
Now, I ask you: if you were the person in second place in a contest this close, would you be throwing in the towel? I don't think I would.
About Pennsylvania
Much has been written about Obama's "bitter" comment and his "elitism" with the statement. But Pennsylvania is different. I can understand why he might feel it hard to connect and why rural Pennsylvanians might find him too cerebral.
Pennsylvania has the largest rural population of any state the nation. That's a statistic that boggled when I was offered my first job there, working for the Pennsylvania Farmer magazine. (I didn't realize agriculture existed above the Mason-Dixon line until then. That job, I turned down.) There's a lot of real estate between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and much of it is agrarian. In many ways, it's more like Wisconsin than like Michigan (a state also hit hard by manufacturing losses): it ranks fourth among all states in milk production and has more than 8,900 farms and 561,000 head of dairy cows. (My second job offer was from the state's largest dairy cooperative; I took that one. Today those farmers are part of the Land O' Lakes dairy cooperative -- a farmer-owned enterprise.)
But the vast geography that is central Pennsylvania is ethnically very different from Philly and Pittsburgh. It's far far more white (Philly is about 40% black; the state as a whole, about 10%).
Pennsylvania is also very Catholic. From Pew:
According to the Pew Forum's U.S. Religious Landscape Survey,1 Catholics are the largest religious community, making up 29% of Pennsylvania's adult population, followed by mainline Protestants at 25% and evangelical Protestants at 18%. The remaining 28% belong to groups other than the three largest Christian communities.
Nationwide, Pew reports that 24% of us profess to be Catholic; 18% mainline Protestant; and 26% evangelical Protestant.
Then there's the east-west difference. When I lived there, we thought of western PA as being more closely aligned to Ohio (the mid-East, not the mid-West!) than to Philadelphia. The east is historically more liberal, politically, and the west more conservative. There are more folks living in the east.
But perhaps it is the dichotomy between urban and rural that makes Pennsylvania one of the three key swing states in the country (along with Ohio and Florida). Together, they provide 68 electoral votes, and no candidate since John F. Kennedy has taken the White House without winning at least two of the three. In this contest, Clinton won Ohio; she may win Pennsylvania. Due to stupidity on the part of state leadership, we don't know about Florida.
If Clinton does win Pennsylvania on Tuesday, how much weight should this two-out-of-three carry when super-delegates decide where to cast their votes? Should they act strategically, as the party intended when it established the system, or ideologically?
Related:
Response To Charge of A "Bitter" Pennsylvania
What Are Super-Delegates?
After Pennsylvania: What's Next for Hillary Clinton?
Learned in Pennsylvania: Core Truths about Obama and Clinton
Willie Brown Convinces Me: Continuing the '08 Race Is Healthy
Tracking the Hillary Clinton 'Mothers and Daughters' Debate
Body Language at Philadelphia Democratic Debate - Head Tilt as Sign of Trouble?
Obama vs. Clinton on Medical Marijuana
Has the American Dream Become a Nightmare?
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