Earlier this month, McClatchy reported survey data suggesting "23 percent of white Democrats say they'd defect to Republican McCain if Obama were their party's nominee, while only 11 percent would do so if Clinton were."
These three states are key to the White House because no one has been elected President since 1964 without winning at least two of these three states. Before that, it was Truman in 1948 (lost Pennsylvania). Collectively, they account for 68 electoral college votes; 270 are needed to win.
- 1960: Nixon won Florida and Ohio (but lost to JFK)
- 1964: LBJ won all three
- 1968: Nixon won Florida and Ohio
- 1972: Nixon won all three
- 1976: Carter won all three
- 1980: Reagan won all three
- 1984: Reagan won all three
- 1988: Bush won all three
- 1992: Clinton won Ohio and Pennsylvania
- 1996: Clinton won all three
- 2000: Bush won Florida and Ohio (Gore would have been President had he won Florida)
- 2004: Bush won Florida and Ohio
Learn why the Democratic Party created the super-delegate system. (Hint: it was for cases like this this election.)
Comments
As one former President said – Let me say this about that. . .
My instincts/intuition have pretty much been on point about where the primaries in both parties were headed, so let me completely put my foot in my mouth now and say that the Ds will overwhelmingly populate Congress and that John McCain will beat Barack Obama by a whisker, that is, less than 20 Electoral votes.
Hillary, in my mind, still stacks up better against McC because the Rs will chew Obama up and spit him out – hope, transcendental politics and all else be damned. However, she ain’t gonna get there – and has only herself to blame.
She completely missed out on the caucus approach, something Obama KNEW he had to do to mount a challenge. He cut his teeth in Saul Alinsky’s hometown organizing the poor – taking many pages from the seminal organizing bible, “Rules for Radicals.”
Clinton ran on the annointed procession theory and got knocked upside the head by Obama who’s Punahou, Occidental and Harvard Law upbringing as Barry O. deftly prepared him for his ultimate calling.
Unfortunately, unless the Ds take into account appointments to the Supreme Court and the lackluster economic chops of McCain, the bow will break and the Presidency will fall to a man who has a track record of service to country that rings well with the older voters – and let’s make no mistake, the percentage of older voters who vote in FL, CA, TX and much of the country south of the Mason Dixon and west of the Mississipi will decide the election, even though the Electoral College vote may contradict the popular vote in the end.
Hi, Kevin!
Thanks for the thoughtful analysis! I hope you hang around.
I don’t get the “Barry O” reference — do you mean when Obama was called Barry in school? If so, how did this prepare him for politics — and why is politics (or the presidency) his “ultimate calling”?