Nomination Process Reveals A Fractured America
The Democratic Party still has no clear nominee (set super-delegates aside for the moment). Significant numbers of supporters (Sen. Clinton, Sen. Obama) on each side would feel disenfranchised should their candidate lose in Denver. So disenfranchised, in fact, that they say (today) that they would vote for the Republican candidate, Sen. John McCain, in November.
The Republican Party seems no less divided, it's just that they aren't hanging their dirty laundry out in public. If the Republicans picked their nominee like the Democrats (no winner-take-all caucuses or primaries), then it's likely they'd not have a winner yet, either. Remember, even with McCain as the presumed nominee (since the other big guns have all dropped out), Rep. Ron Paul took 16 percent of the Pennsylvania vote.
And then there's the disintermediation facilitated by web technologies.
Ah, don't let your eyes glaze over! Disintermediation is a fancy way of saying web technologies help cut out the middleman. This is disruptive to existing institutions, like newspapers (that have lost classified ad sales to eBay and Craig's List). This is disruptive to existing institutions, like software firms (moving from a shrink wrapped product -- Microsoft Word -- to an online and on-demand one -- Google Docs). This is disruptive to existing institutions, like TV producers (YouTube, Amazon UnBox and the iTunes Store have freed millions of TV viewers from the clutches of cable firms).
Why should political parties be immune?
The short answer: they shouldn't be, and they aren't.
Candidates like Sen. Obama and Rep. Paul have done an excellent job of marshaling social media technologies to raise money and generate grassroots support. But the ultimate change might be that these technologies make it so easy ("low cost") to find and connect with people who "think like me." Thus, the technologies enable fragmentation; in this way, social media technologies are the polar opposite of broadcast (one way) media technologies.
Is the two-party system on death's bed? Should it be?
Comments
I’ve been thinking about this for a while …. the only “hurdle” to getting on a ballot is signatures, and I’m guessing that varies by state? What other advantages might a party offer to someone new to political office? What advantages might a party offer to VOTERS?
Kathy, leave it up to you to find that unique, thought-provoking, and little-explored angle to sum up your post.
Social media technologies are changing our habits and expectations of how we’ll interact with our chosen candidates.
Up until now, it’s seemed like the dream of a third party – or multiple parties – has been largely unrealized due to the Whack-A-Mole effect; each time a viable independent candidate surfaces in a presidential race, once they’re knocked out of consideration that particular entry tunnel is closed. There is no continuity, no collective group, no system or structure that maintains those scattered voters once that cycle is completed.
But as you so astutely note, now those voters need not scatter to the four winds. Social media can keep them connected, and make third parties and others more formidable as new systems develop.
Oh brave new world that hath such people (and technology) in it.
I just hope for the USA that the 2 party system disappear, allowing public expression of more than two (very similar) opinions. It would help the US public and politics to embrace broader range of ideas, instead of its current narrow one.
I don’t know, but my choice is obama, I hope he is the next US president
Hi, Linda — thanks! I’ve been thinking about this for a week, due in no small part to Clay Shirky’s new book, Here Comes Everybody. I need to send him a note.
Hi, Alphast — my gut reaction mirrors yours, but I have no research upon which to base this. It does seem like coalition gov’t might be less prone to the excesses we get when the WH and Congress “match up.”
Thanks Katy.
By the way, while the USA (and the Democrats) continue to enjoy in narcissism for these elections, people continue dying in Iraq, with the full support about the US Congress: read this if you don’t believe me, it is written by people who are “enjoying” the “surge” on a daily basis.
Alphast, I chalk it up to war fatigue — the fact that Iraq has fallen off the front pages of the newspapers and the top of the hour TV & radio news reports.
Well, that and the horse race that has been this Democratic primary.
Thanks for the link.