North Carolina v Indiana
Lots of pundits are writing off Sen. Clinton because she lost NC and didn't win IN by as big a margin as they think she needed. This post does something different: I'm comparing North Carolina and Indiana to the rest of the country. Which state is the more likely proxy for the nation?
- Population: 74.0% white (80.1% nationally) and 21.7% black (12.8% nationally)
- Poor: greater percentage than the national average (13.8% v 12.7%)
- Median household income: $40,863 ($44,334 nationally)
- November Results: 2004 - Bush (56%) ... 2000 - Bush (56%) ... 1996 - Dole (49%)
- Population: 88.3% white (80.1% nationally) and 8.9% black (12.8% nationally)
- Poor: smaller percentage than the national average (11.1% v 12.7%)
- Median household income: $43,217 ($44,334 nationally)
- November results: 2004 - Bush (60%) ... 2000 - Bush (57%) ... 1996 - Dole (47%)
North Carolina is both poorer and blacker (1-in-3 voters) than either Indiana (1-in-7 voters) or the US as a whole.
Now compare those two states with Pennsylvania, a key swing state (about 1-in-7 black voters) and one that has voted Democratic the past three Presidential election cycles. Except for the November 2000 election, Pennsylvania more closely represents the rest of the country than does either Indiana or North Carolina.
- Population: 85.7% white (80.1% nationally) and 10.7% black (12.8% nationally)
- Poor: smaller percentage than the national average (11.2% v 12.7%)
- Median household income: $43,714 ($44,334 nationally)
- November results: 2004 - Kerry (51%) ... 2000 - Gore (51%) ... 1996 - Clinton (49%)
I don't know what this means. But if I were a super-delegate, I'd be asking myself that question.
And this one, as well. Sen. Obama consistently scores well with black Democratic voters; on average more than 9-in-10 vote for him. But can carrying 90+ percent of a demographic that accounts for only 13 percent of the nation's population lead to a win in November? I can't answer this one, either.
One last word: as a voter, I wish that John Edwards were still in the race. But as a political writer, I find that it's easier when there is no candidate who floats your boat.