Media Declare Obama The Democratic Nominee

There will be books and dissertations aplenty analyzing media impacts on the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.

After Tuesday's primaries in South Dakota and Montana, the media declared Sen. Barack Obama the winner. (Later, so did he.) Obama has 1,762.5 pledged delegates (41.6 percent of all delegates, pledged and soft). Pledged delegates are determined by caucus and primary votes in each state; they are "pledged" to vote for their candidate only on the first round of voting at the convention. Sen. Hillary Clinton has 1636.5 pledged delegates. However, the magic number to secure the nomination is 2,117.

Obama can be called the winner based only on public statements made by unpledged (soft) super-delegates -- delegates who are bound only by their conscience. There are 823.5 super-delegate votes; 400-or-so have publicly endorsed Obama and 280-or-so have publicly endorsed Clinton. Some have reportedly been subjected to pressure to cast their votes to Obama.

What's interesting is that if the Democrats had a winner-take-all system like the Republicans, Clinton would be in the winner's circle today. Even with Michigan and Florida having their delegate numbers cut in half as a penalty for holding their contests too early. Of course, her margin would be no greater than Obama's -- clearly demonstrating how SPLIT the Democratic party is, despite the fact that the media gloss over the division.

Adding up the pledged delegates (not super-delegates) based on winner-take-all gives Clinton 2,148.5 delegates and Obama 2,073.5 (splitting Guam and Missouri, since both are tied).

This contest has been one of finessing rules, often some pretty arcane ones. And there's no one in national politics today who knows this like Obama, based on how he played the rules to win his first elected office.

Given the "soft" nature of those super-delegate votes, I think the more accurate -- factual -- characterization is presumed nominee. But many media pundits have swooned over Obama since 2006. Kurt Anderson, on PBS with Charlie Rose: "I’ve been unabashed about my fondness and, yes, my swooning for Obama."

And the swooning shows in the reporting. And the photos. And the cable "news" talking heads.

Like I said at the top, many books and dissertations to follow.

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