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Presidential Race: Obama Lead Shrinks

From Kathy Gill, About.com GuideAugust 14, 2008

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According to a Pew Research poll released Wednesday, the race between Barack Obama and John McCain is narrowing because the Republican base is beginning to endorse McCain.

Obama still leads among registered voters, 46% to 43% (margin of error is 2%). However, McCain is supported by more Republican party members -- 87% -- than Obama is supported by Democrats -- 83%. McCain picked up 5 points since June, but Obama's support has remained flat. Additional evidence that the GOP is uniting around its presumed nominee: 88% of the formal GOP candidates support McCain but only 72% of the Clinton crowd supports Obama.

Age and experience are helping McCain. By a two-to-one margin (54% to 27%), voters say the phrase "personally qualified to be president" applies better to McCain than to Obama. McCain's "good judgment in a crisis" numbers moved from 47% in June to 51% in August; Obama's numbers moved down from 38% to 36% (within margin of error). And McCain leads in "willing to take stand" -- 49% to 38%.

When asked "what do you like" about the candidates, fully 53% of those support McCain liked nothing about Obama. Conversely, on 34% of those who support Obama liked nothing about McCain.

As in the primaries, Obama is pulling in about 9-in-10 black votes. McCain leads 51% to 39% among whites; 49%-to-41% among men; and 47%-to-42% among voters older than 60. Obama leads 51% to 38% among women and has a 24 point lead among voters younger than 30. However, Obama has only a slim majority (51%) of whites younger than 30.

Independent are a key audience: almost half remain undecided.

It's two weeks until the Democratic convention. Obama's candidacy did not get a "bounce" from Clinton's withdrawal. How much bounce will it get post-convention?

Related:: Deconstructing A Political Poll: How To Determine If A Political Poll Is Valid Or Newsworthy and Historical Presidential Approval Ratings - End Of Term

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