How "Purple" Are We? A Look At 2008 Election Returns

Pundits right and left are hypothesizing about how much of a mandate the Democrats have after last week's historic election. I think it's important that voters in very urbanized areas and voters in very rural areas (the "blue-est" blue and "red-est" red areas, in general) remember that much of the country remains pretty purple.

In this election, there are more deep blue pockets along the edges in the top image, which reflects the 2008 vote. This change is especially obvious along the Mexican border (Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California) where many "purple" counties in 2004 turned "blue" in 2008, ostensibly due to the Hispanic vote.

Moreover, there are hints that without a major change in policy (or a more superficial change via "brand management"), the Republican Party is on track to become an ineffective political force in Congress. In 2006 Thomas Schaller noted that a Democratic majority in the House would mean that "for the first time in 52 years, the party with a minority of House seats in the South will [be] the majority party chamberwide." That Democratic majority came about in 2006 and was expanded, slightly, in 2008.

In this election, Democrats picked up North Carolina (reject incumbent) and Virginia (open seat) for the Senate as well as winning the electoral votes for White House. Virginia had voted Republican for president since 1972. North Carolina was almost as red, although it did support Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Some states, like Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Ohio, flipped back to Democrats after having voted for Bush. These votes appear to be a rejection of Bush Republicanism.

Other states, such as Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Tennessee, seem to have rejected their experiment (under Clinton) with the Democratic party.

Finally, looking at the states that were close in 2000 can also provide perspective on the 2008 election. Of the eight states that I called "close" in 2000 (90 electoral votes), only Missouri appears to have stayed in the Republican column. The others either stayed Democratic or switched to the Democrats: Florida (switched), Iowa, Nevada (switched), New Hampshire (switched), New Mexico, Ohio (switched) and Wisconsin.

See more election maps and cartograms. Also, see Deborah White, Why Red States Turned Blue in 2008 and Justin Quinn, Wordy Wednesday: Barack Obama's Victory.