Conference Committee Crafts Compromise

Update 3
Congress moved with unusual haste in appointing the conference committee tasked with resolving conflicts with the House and Senate versions of an economic "stimulus" package. The committee, in turn, moved with record haste in reaching accord; reportedly, the negotiation was not bi-partisan.

The package reportedly totals $789 billion in spending and tax cuts, but "[d]etails of the agreement have not been published as budget offices go through the details to calculate the cost of the legislation."

The conference report proceeds directly to the floor of each chamber for a vote; it cannot be amended. The House may vote as soon as Thursday; if they do so, it is reasonable to assume that they will not have had a chance to read the entire bill, much less analyze it.

This post will be updated as news reports provide details of the package.

Public Remains Skeptical
Despite President Obama's full court press to garner public support for his economic package -- and unsubstantiated assertions of public support in press reports -- Rassmussen (the most accurate pollster on 4 November 2008) continues to find deep-rooted skepticism:

• More than half (54%) rate Congressional performance as "poor" and only 12% rates is "good" or "excellent."
• Two-thirds (67%) of us think we could do a better job than Congress regarding the economy: "Whose judgment do you trust more when it comes to economic issues affecting the nation-- yourself or the average member of Congress?"
• The corollary: two-thirds (69%) believe that Congress does not know "what it's doing when it comes to addressing the country’s current economic problems?"

Details Are Us

• Tax cuts account for about 36% of the package, according to Reuters This includes a "smaller tax credit for workers that would now total $400 for individuals and $800 for couples." Note that most Americans (62%) would prefer more tax cuts and less government spending.
• Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) said that there is a "$54 billion fund for states to help them plug growing budget deficits as well as to pay to modernize schools." The House had allocated $79 billion for states; the Senate, $39 billion.
• From the NY Times: "It will also provide a one-time payment of $250 to recipients of Social Security and government disability support."
• The NYT also reports that the bill includes $70 billion for Alternative Minimum Tax relief. Although this might be a needed measure (inflation should not be the reason people are having to pay AMT), it is not an "emergency" action. And tax measures that go into effect in 2010 are not "quick stimuli."
• Infrastructure investment has been trimmed. According to Collins, about $150 billion is allocated for infrastructure, from transportation projects to expanded high-speed Internet service. The Congressional Budget Office has identified infrastructure spending as having positive economic impacts but noted that the Senate bill had only one-in-four dollars devoted to programs that "might increase economic output in the long run."
• If you have been laid off, this bill provides a 60% federal subsidy (one assumes to your former employer) to help you afford COBRA. This means that keeping your employer-provided health insurance coverage should require you to pay only 42%, 102%, of the cost of the policy. It also extends the period that you can receive unemployment benefits and increases the benefit by $25 per week.
• In a nod to the auto industry, the bill provides some tax relief if you buy a new car. No word yet on how much this might cost, but it will be nothing like the controversial Senate bill if it's only a deduction for state sales taxes.

The Process
ABC's TheNote reports that one Republican conference committee member was shut out of key negotiations. Also, this closed and exceeding fast turnaround violates a principle on page 27 of the Democratic Party's manifesto (109th Congress), A New Direction for America (pdf):

Require that all conference committee meetings be open to the public and that members of the conference committee have a public opportunity to vote on all amendments. Make copies of conference reports available to Members and post them publicly on the Internet 24 hours before consideration (unless waived by a supermajority vote).

This closed-door process stands in stark contrast to the President's ethics statement on Change.gov:

End the Practice of Writing Legislation Behind Closed Doors: As president, Barack Obama will restore the American people's trust in their government by making government more open and transparent. Obama will work to reform congressional rules to require all legislative sessions, including committee mark-ups and conference committees, to be conducted in public. By making these practices public, the American people will be able to hold their leaders accountable for wasteful spending and lawmakers won't be able to slip favors for lobbyists into bills at the last minute.

The President was represented in the closed-door negotiations, according to news reports.

More To Come
Lost in the hoopla over the stimulus bill: another $2.5 trillion for the financial system announced Tuesday by Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner.

This recession has not come close to that of 1982 -- either in unemployment rates or interest rates -- and yet the Democratic Congress and White House is planning the "most expansive unleashing of the government’s fiscal firepower in the face of a recession since World War II."