CBO On Economic Compromise Package

The Congressional Budget Office has a high-level analysis of the compromise legislation on its website (dated 11 February, no less). You can read the PDF, but here are some key points:

• Provisions that could (not would, could) add to long-term output are only 20-25 percent of the total cost of this bill.
• CBO estimates that GDP, relative to the agency’s baseline forecast, will increase between 1.4 percent and 3.8 percent by the end of this year.
• Impact on unemployment in 2009 and 2010: an increase of 2.0 - 5.9 million.

How well has CBO forecast prior Congressional stimulus bills? I don't know the answer, but I'll try to find out.

How effective are tax rebates? According to conservative economist Martin Feldstein, who supported the October 2008 stimulus, "only about 15 percent of last year's tax rebates led to additional spending."