Percentage of citizens with post-graduate degrees is a better predictor than household income
when projecting which states would vote for Kerry or for Bush.
Of the 17 states (including DC) with an above average percentage of citizens with advanced degrees,
13 (76.5%) voted for Kerry. Of the 34 states with
a below average percentage of citizens with advanced degrees,
27 (79.4%) voted for Bush.
Of the 25 states with median household income greater than the national median,
16 (64%) voted for Kerry. However, of the 25 states with median household income
less than the national median, 23 (92%) voted for Bush. In other words,
household income was a better predictor for Bush than for Kerry.
Data
The following chart presents US Census data on educational attainment by state and is
sorted by percentage of population holding graduate or professional degrees (
Masters, Phd, Law, MD, etc).
Other data presented include percentage of population
holding a bachelor's degree (along with state rank) and median household income
in 2003 inflation-adjusted dollars (also with state rank). The median inflation-adjusted household income in the US for 2003 was $43,318; this means
that as many households had income greater than this number as had income
lower than this number.
Following the mainstream media convention, states that voted for Kerry are blue
and those that voted for Bush are red.
Anomolies
Alaska, Colorado, and Virginia are Bush anomolies -- they rank high in all categories and yet
voted for Bush. New Mexico ranked high in post-graduate degrees but ranks 46th nationally
in median household income; income trumped education, reinforcing the suggestion that
median household income is a good predictor in this election.
Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are Kerry
anomolies -- they rank below average in percentage of population with advanced
degrees, yet they voted for Kerry. However, all but two rank above the median US
household income -- so once again income seems to have trumped education.
Thus, when income and education are not congruent with national averages,
the pocketbook seems to take precedence.
What about Florida and Ohio? Both rank in the bottom half of the country in
percent of population with graduate degrees and median household income. They
also rank in the bottom half in percent of population with bachelor degrees.
Thus, their voting pattern is congruent with these indicators.
| Rank |
State |
Graduate, professional degree (%)
|
Bachelor's degree (%) and Rank |
Median HH Income ($) and Rank |
| 1 |
District of Columbia |
23.6 |
44.2 (1) |
42,118 (24) |
| 2 |
Massachusetts |
14.5 |
35.8 (2) |
53,610 (5) |
| 3 |
Maryland |
14.1 |
34.5 (5) |
57,218 (2) |
| 4 |
Connecticut |
13.7 |
34.6 (4) |
56,803 (3) |
| 5 |
Virginia |
12.9 |
32.2 (6) |
50,805 (7) |
| 6 |
New York |
12.6 |
29.7 (12) |
46,195 (17) |
| 7 |
Vermont |
12.3 |
32.0 (8) |
43,697 (21) |
| 8 |
Colorado |
11.5 |
34.7 (3) |
50,538 (10) |
| 8 |
New Jersey |
11.5 |
32.1 (7) |
58,588 (1) |
| 10 |
New Mexico |
11.0 |
23.7 (36) |
34,805 (46) |
| 11 |
Illinois |
10.6 |
28.1 (17) |
47,977 (14) |
| 12 |
New Hampshire |
10.5 |
30.3 (10) |
53,910 (4) |
| 13 |
Washington |
10.1 |
30.2 (11) |
46,868 (16) |
| 13 |
California |
10.1 |
29.1 (13) |
50,220 (11) |
| 15 |
Rhode Island |
9.9 |
29.1 (13) |
48,854 (13) |
| 16 |
Alaska |
9.8 |
26.6 (19) |
52,499 (6) |
| 17 |
Oregon |
9.5 |
26.4 (20) |
40,319 (34) |
| average percent with graduate/professional
degree: 9.4% |
| 18 |
Minnesota |
9.3 |
30.6 (9) |
50,100 (12) |
| 19 |
Delaware |
9.2 |
27.6 (18) |
50,583 (9) |
| 20 |
Kansas |
8.9 |
28.7 (15) |
41,075 (29) |
| 20 |
Missouri |
8.9 |
24.1
(33) |
40,725 (31) |
| 20 |
Pennsylvania |
8.9 |
24.2 (32) |
41,478 (26) |
| 23 |
Hawaii |
8.8 |
28.2 (16) |
50,787 (8) |
| 24 |
Florida |
8.5 |
25.0 (26) |
39,871 (35) |
| 25 |
Michigan |
8.3 |
24.3 (29) |
44,407 (19) |
| 26 |
Arizona |
8.2 |
24.3 (29) |
40,762 (30) |
| 27 |
Texas |
8.0 |
24.5 (28) |
40,674 (32) |
| 28 |
Georgia |
7.9 |
25.7 (24) |
42,742 (23) |
| 28 |
Utah |
7.9 |
26.2 (21) |
46,873 (15) |
| 30 |
Maine |
7.8 |
25.9 (22) |
39,838 (36) |
| 31 |
North Carolina |
7.7 |
24.3 (29) |
38,234 (41) |
| 31 |
South Carolina |
7.7 |
23.2 (38) |
38,467 (38) |
| 31 |
Indiana |
7.7 |
21.0 (46) |
42,067 (25) |
| 34 |
Ohio |
7.6 |
23.0 (40) |
41,350 (28) |
| 35 |
Montana |
7.5 |
25.8 (23) |
35,399 (43) |
| 35 |
Kentucky |
7.5 |
18.6 (50) |
34,368 (47) |
| 35 |
Alabama |
7.5 |
21.2 (45) |
35,158 (44) |
| 38 |
Nebraska |
7.4 |
25.3 (25) |
41,406 (27) |
| 39 |
Wisconsin |
7.2 |
23.8 (35) |
44,084 (20) |
| 39 |
Wyoming |
7.2 |
23.7 (36) |
43,332 (22) |
| 41 |
Idaho |
7.1 |
24.0 (34) |
39,492 (37) |
| 41 |
Tennessee |
7.1 |
21.5 (43) |
38,247 (40) |
| 43 |
Louisiana |
6.7 |
21.3 (44) |
34,141 (49) |
| 43 |
North Dakota |
6.7 |
25.0 (26) |
37,554 (42) |
| 45 |
West Virginia |
6.6 |
17.0 (51) |
31,008 (51) |
| 46 |
Oklahoma |
6.5 |
21.9 (42) |
35,129 (45) |
| 46 |
Arkansas |
6.5 |
19.0 (48) |
34,246 (48) |
| 48 |
Iowa |
6.3 |
22.5 (41) |
40,526 (30) |
| 49 |
South Dakota |
6.1 |
23.1 (39) |
38,415 (39) |
| 50 |
Nevada |
5.9 |
19.5 (47) |
45,395 (18) |
| 51 |
Mississippi |
5.8 |
18.7 (49) |
32,466 (50) |
Source:
Eastern States Lead in Graduate Degrees;
Colorado and New Mexico Stand Out in West. US Census Bureau, 10 March 2004.
Accessed 8 November 2004.
Percent of People 25 Years and Over Who Have Completed a Bachelor's Degree
Population 25 years and over (State level).
US Census Bureau, 2003.
Accessed 8 November 2004.
Median Household Income (In 2003 Inflation-adjusted Dollars)
Households (State level).
US Census Bureau, 2003. Accessed 8 November 2004.
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