25 August 2005

For Fall 2006 elections, voters will select new governors in 36 states. Overall, Republicans hold a slight edge in governorships: 28-22. However, six are not eligible for reelection due to term limits,; all are Republicans: Jeb Bush (FL), Mike Huckabee (AR), Dirk Kempthorne (ID), Kenny Guinn (NV), Bill Owens (CO) and Bob Taft (OH).

The following charts analyze the potential that a seat might change parties in this election cycle; they are based on analysis from several election consultants.

The legend for this chart follows:

• Likely: These races have the potential to become competitive.
• Lean: Although a competitive race, one party has an advantage.
• Toss-Up: These are the most competitive races and are too close to call.

See 2005 Gubernatorial Races, 2006 Senate Races, 2006 House Races, 2008 Presidential Race

Open Gubernatorial Seats
State	Party	Governor	Status
AR	R	Huckabee (1996-2006)	Term Limits - Toss Up Possible candidates: Hutchinson and Rockefeller (R) ; Bryan and Lendall (I) ; Beebe (D)
CO	R	Owens (1998-2006)	Term Limits - Toss Up Possible candidates: Bridges, Hickenlooper and Ritter (D) ; Beauprez and Holtzman (R)
FL	R	Bush (1998-2006)	Term Limits - Leans Republican Possible candidates: Davis, Maddox and Smith (D) ; Crist, Gallagher and Jennings (R)
IA	D	Vilsack (1998-2006)	Retiring - Toss Up Possible candidates: Blouin and Culver (D) ; Nussle (R)
ID	R	Kempthorne (1998-2006)	Retiring - Leans Republican Possible candidates: Brady (D) ; Otter (R)
NV	R	Guinn (1998-2006)	Term Limits - Leans Republican Possible candidates: Perkins and Titus (D) ; Beers, Gibbons and Hunt (R)
OH	R	Taft (1998-2006)	Term Limits - Toss Up Possible candidates: Coleman and Strickland (D) ; Blackwell, Montgomery and Petro (R)

Contested Gubernatorial Seats
State	Party	Governor	Status
AK	R	Murkowski (2002-?)	Toss Up Possible candidates: Seekins (R), Berkowitz (D)
AL	R	Riley (2002-?)	Toss Up Possible candidates: Moore (R) ; Baxley and Siegelman (D)
AZ	D	Napolitano (2002-?)	Leans Democratic Possible candidates: deGreen and Green (R)
CA	R	Schwarzenegger (2003-?)	Toss Up Possible candidates: Angelides and Westly (D)
CT	R	Rell (2004-?)	Leans Republican Possible candidates: Blumenthal, Bysiewicz, DeStefano and Malloy (D)
GA	R	Perdue (2002-?)	Leans Republican Possible candidates: Cox and Taylor (D)
HI	R	Lingle (2002-?)	Leans Democrat Possible candidates:
IL	D	Blagojevich (2002-?)	Leans Democrat Possible candidates: LaHood and Rauschenberger (R)
KS	D	Sebelius (2002-?)	Leans Republican Possible candidates: Mays and Moran (R)
MA	R	Romney (2002-?)	Leans Republican Possible candidates: Patrick and Reilly (D) ; Healey (R)
MD	R	Ehrlich (2002-?)	Leans Republican Possible candidates: Duncan and O'Malley (D) ;
ME	D	Baldacci (2002-?)	Leans Democrat Possible candidates: Cianchette (R)
MI	D	Granholm (2002-?)	Leans Democrat Possible candidates: DeVos (R)
MN	R	Pawlenty (2002-?)	Leans Republican Possible candidates: Kelley (D)
NE	R	Heineman (2005-?)	Leans Republican Possible candidates:
NH	D	Lynch (2004-?)	2-year terms - Leans Democrat Possible candidates:
NM	D	Richardson (2002-?)	Leans Democrat Possible candidates:
NY	R	Pataki (1994-2006)	Leans Democrat Possible candidates: Spitzer (D) ; Daniels (R)
OK	D	Henry (2002-?)	Leans Democrat Possible candidates:
OR	D	Kulongoski (2002-?)	Leans Democrat Possible candidates: Sorenson (D) ; Mannix and Saxton (R)
PA	D	Rendell (2002-?)	Leans Democrat Possible candidates: Sorenson (D) ; Piccola, Scranton and Swann (R)
RI	R	Carcieri (2002-?)	Leans Republican Possible candidates: Fogarty (D)
SC	R	Sanford (2002-?)	Leans Republican Possible candidates: Moore and Willis (D)
SD	R	Rounds (2002-?)	Leans Republican Possible candidates:
TN	D	Bredesen (2002-?)	Leans Democrat Possible candidates:
TX	R	Perry (2000-?)	Leans Republican Possible candidates: Bell (D) ; Strayhorn (R) ; Friedman (I)
VT	R	Douglas (1998-?)	Leans Republican Possible candidates:
WI	D	Doyle (2002-?)	Leans Democrat Possible candidates: Green and Walker (R)
WI	D	Freudenthal (2002-?)	Leans Democrat Possible candidates: