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The Race for the Senate
Campaign 2004
For the Fall 2004 elections, voters will select 34 Senators (currently held by 19 Democrats and 15 Republicans); one-third of the 100 Senate seats are up for election every two years.

The following chart analyzes the potential that a seat might change parties in this election cycle; it is based on analysis from several election consultants. The Senate race is under a microscope this year because the current make-up is xx Republicans, xx Democrats and one Independent; in case of a tie, the Vice President casts the deciding ballot.

The legend for this chart follows:
  • Likely: These races have the potential to become competitive.
  • Lean: Although a competitive race, one party has an advantage.
  • Toss-Up: These are the most competitive races and are too close to call at this time.
See House Races.

Senate Seats That Might Change Party
State Party Senator Status
AR R Murkowski Toss Up
CA D Boxer Likely Democrat
Faces B. Jones (R)
CO R Campbell Retiring - Toss Up
FL D Graham - Retiring Toss Up
GA D Miller - retiring Likely Republican
Democratic run-off on August 10: Denise Majette and Cliff Oxford
Il R Fitzgerald - retiring Likely Democrat
Barack Obama (D) vs. ? (R)
KY R Bunning Likely Republican
Faces D. Mongiardo (D)
LA D Breaux - Retiring Toss Up
Chris John
MO R Bond Likely Republican
NC D Edwards - VP Candidate Toss Up
OK R Nickles - Retiring Toss Up
PA R Specter Likely Republican
SC D Hollings
Toss Up
Inez Tenenbaum (D) vs. Jim DeMint (R)
SD D Daschle Toss Up
WA D Murray Leans Democrat
Faces Nethercutt (R)
WI D Feingold Likely Democrat

Senate Seats Unlikely To Change Party
State Party Senator
AL R Shelby
AR D Lincoln
AZ R McCain
CT D Dodd
HI D Inouye
IA R Grassley
ID R Crappo
IN D Bayh
KS R Brownback
MN D Mikulski
ND D Dorgan
NH R Gregg
NV D Reid
NY D Schumer
OH R Voinovich
OR D Wyden
UT R Bennett
VT D Leahy
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