25 August 2005

For Fall 2006 elections, voters will select 33 Senators (currently held by 18 Democrats and 15 Republicans); one-third of the 100 Senate seats are up for election every two years. The November 2004 election gave Republicans a majority: 55-44-1. In the event of a tie, the Vice President casts the deciding vote.

Eleven of the 33 are first-term Senators and seven are completing their second full term; one from each set is retiring. Six facing re-election are women: Maria Cantwell (D-WA), Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY), Diane Feinstein (D-CA), Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI).

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) as well as two Democratic senators (Sarbanes and Dayton) and Jeffords, the lone independent, have announced their retirement. Frist, a two-term senator, is a likely candidate for president in 2008. Sen. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) is a candidate in the 2005 New Jersey gubernatorial race; should he win the governorship, his seat will be open for a special election.

The following charts analyze the potential that a seat might change parties in this election cycle; they are based on analysis from several election consultants. The Federal Election Commission has data for the 2000 senatorial elections.

The legend for this chart follows:

• Likely: These races have the potential to become competitive.
• Lean: Although a competitive race, one party has an advantage.
• Toss-Up: These are the most competitive races and are too close to call.

See 2005 Gubernatorial Races, 2006 Governor Races, 2006 House Races, 2008 Presidential Race

Senate Seats That Might Change Party
State	Party	Senator	Status
FL	D	Nelson (2000-?)	Leans Democrat
MD	D	Sarbanes - retiring (1976-2006)	Leans Democrat
MI	D	Stabenow (2000-?)	Leans Democrat
MN	D	Dayton - retiring (2000-06)	Toss-Up
MO	R	Talent (2002-?)	Leans Republican
MT	R	Burns (1988-?)	Leans Republican
NE	D	Nelson (2000-?)	Leans Democrat
NJ	D	Corzine (2000-?) - running for Governor	Leans Democrat
ND	D	Conrad (1986-?)	Likely Democrat
OH	R	DeWine (1994-?)	Likely Republican
PA	R	Santorum (1994-?)	Toss Up Faces D Bob Casey Jr
RI	R	Chafee (2000-?)	Toss Up
TN	R	Frist (1994-2006) - retiring	Toss Up
VT	I	Jeffords (1988-2006) - retiring	Leans Democrat
WA	D	Cantwell (2000-?)	Leans Democrat
WV	D	Byrd (1958-?)	Likely Democrat

Senate Seats Unlikely To Change Party
State	Party	Senator
AZ	R	Kyl (1994-?)
CA	D	Feinstein (1992-?)
CT	D	Lieberman (1988-?)
DE	D	Carper (2000-?)
HI	D	Akaka (1990-?)
IN	R	Lugar (1976-?)
MA	D	Kennedy (1962-?)
ME	R	Snowe (1994-?)
MS	R	Lott (1988-?)
NM	D	Bingaman (1982-?)
NY	D	Clinton (2000-?)
NV	R	Ensign (2000-?)
TX	R	Hutchison (1993-?)
UT	R	Hatch (1976-?)
VA	R	Allen (2000-?)
WI	D	Kohl (1988-?)
WY	R	Thomas (1994-?)