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US Senate Seats Up For Re-Election

Campaign 2008

1 December 2008

The chart below has been updated to reflect winners. There are currently two races still undecided: Georgia and Minnesota.

Summary
One-third of the 100 Senate seats are up for election every two years; on 4 November 2008, voters will select 34 Senators (one special election). These senators will serve a six-year term from 3 January 2009 until 2 January 2015.

The following chart reflects the potential that a seat might change parties in this election cycle; it is based on analysis from several election consultants.

Analysis
The November 2006 election gave Democrats a slim majority -- 51-49 -- because two Independents caucus with Democrats. In the event of a tie, the Vice President, a Republican, casts the deciding vote.

Going into this election, the Democrats are at an advantage because most of the seats (22) are held by Republicans. Thus, they have fewer seats (12) to defend.

Eight of the 33 are first-term Senators; only one of these is a Democrat. One, Sen. Frank R. Lautenberg (D-NJ) was re-elected in 2002 after retiring in 2000.

There is one special election, in Wyoming (which will elect two Senators in November).

Five senators have announced retirement. Should Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) not be win election as Vice President, he will run for re-election.
  • Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO, announced 1/15/2007)
  • Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID, resignation announced then rescinded)
  • Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM, announced 10/3/2007)
  • Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE, announced 9/10/2007)
  • Sen. John Warner (R-VA, announced 8/31/2007)
Also see 13 Key Senate Races

The legend for the chart:
  • Competitive: These races have the potential to become competitive.
  • Toss-Up: These are uncertain or too close to call.


Senate Seats Up For Election In 2008
State Incumbent Outlook 2002
Vote
AL R Jeff Sessions
(1997 - )
Considered safe seat; won with 63% 59%
AK R Ted Stevens
(1968 - )
He will be 85 in 2008; convicted of corruption charges. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich squeaks by Stevens to capture the win. 78%
AR D Mark Pryor
(2003 - )
Considered safe seat; uncontested. 54%
CO R Wayne Allard
(1997 - 2008)
Open seat; retiring. Candidates: former US Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) and current US Rep. Mark Udall (D). Udall wins with 53% 51%
DE D Joseph Biden
(1973 - )
Considered safe seat. Re-elected and elected for Vice President. The Governor will appoint a successor for a term that expires in 2010. 58%
GA R Saxby Chambliss
(2003 - )
Considered safe seat; in run-off with Democrat Martin 53%
ID R Larry E. Craig
(1991 - 2007)
Resigned. Candidates: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (R) and former Rep. Larry LaRocco (D). Risch wins with 58% 65%
IA D Tom Harkin
(1985 - )
Considered safe seat. Re-elected with 63% 54%
IL D Richard Durbin
(1997 - )
Considered safe seat; senior senator. Re-elected with 68% 60%
KS R Pat Roberts
(1997 - )
Considered safe seat. Re-elected with 60% 83%
KY R Mitch McConnell
(1985 - )
Considered safe seat; senior senator and Senate Minority Leader. Seat targeted by DNC. Re-elected with 53% 65%
LA D Mary Landrieu
(1997 - )
Will Katrina backlash bite? Re-elected with 52% 52%
ME R Susan Collins
(1997 - )
State leans Republican. Candidates: Rep. Tom Allen (D-ME-1) voted against Iraq War. Collins re-elected with 61% 58%
MA D John Kerry
(1985 - )
Considered safe seat. Re-elected with 66% 80%
MI D Carl Levin
(1979 - )
Considered safe seat; senior senator. Re-elected with 60%
MN R Norm Coleman
(2003 - )
State leans Republican. Candidates: author and former radio talk show host Al Franken (D). Too close to call. 50%
MS R Thad Cochran
(1979 - )
Considered safe seat. Re-elected with 62% 85%
MS R Roger Wicker
(2007 - )
Appointed to fill seat vacated by Republican Sen. Trent Lott. Re-elected with 55% 85%
MT D Max Baucus
(1978 - )
Considered safe seat. Re-elected with 73% 63%
NJ D Frank R. Lautenberg
(1982-2001, 2003-)
Considered safe seat; he will be 84 in 2008. Re-elected with 56% 54%
NC R Elizabeth Dole
(2003 - )
State leans Republican. Upset by Hagen (53%-47%) 54%
NE R Chuck Hagel
(1997 - )
Candidates: Former Bush Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns and rancher and professor Scott Kleeb. Kleeb wins with 50% 83%
NH R John E. Sununu
(2003 - )
State leans Republican. Democrat Jeanne Shaheen wins with 52% 51%
NM R Pete Domenici
(1973 - )
Will not run; implicated in US Attorneys firings. Democratic Rep. Tom Udall defeats Republican Rep. Steve Pearce, 61% to 39% 65%
OK R James M. Inhofe
(1994 - )
Considered safe seat; senior senator. Candidates: State Sen. Andrew Rice (D). Re-elected with 57% 57%
OR R Gordon H. Smith
(1997 - )
Other Senator a Democrat. Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) and attorney wins 49% to 46% 56%
RI D Jack Reed
(1997 - )
Considered safe seat; senior senator. Re-elected with 73% 78%
SC R Lindsey Graham
(2003 - )
Considered safe seat. Re-elected with 58% 54%
SD D Tim Johnson
(1997 - )
Considered safe seat if recovers health; senior senator. Re-elected with 62% 55%
TN R Lamar Alexander
(2003 - )
Considered safe seat; senior senator. Re-elected with 65% 54%
TX R John Cornyn
(2002 - )
Considered safe seat. Re-elected with 56% 55%
VA R John W. Warner
(1979 - 2008)
Will not run. former Democratic Governor Mark Warner defeats former Gov. Jim Gilmore, 65% to 34% 83%
WV D Jay Rockefeller IV
(1985 - )
Considered safe seat. Re-elected with 64% 63%
WY R Michael B. Enzi
(1997 - )
Considered safe seat. Re-elected with 76% 73%
WY R John Barrasso
(2007)
Appointed to fill seat of Craig Thomas (2007-2013), who died 4 June 2007. Special election. Re-elected with 73% na


The Federal Election Commission has data for the prior and current election cycles.

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