National Intelligence Estimate

The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) is at the center of the debate on US action in Iraq. The 2002 NIE was used to justify the US invasion. Subsequent analyses suggest intelligence was flawed and contrary opinions given short shrift in the final report.

The NIE is a product of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), which is "composed of senior analysts within the intelligence community and substantive experts from the public and private sector, who shall be appointed by, report to, and serve at the pleasure of, the Director of National Intelligence."

The Council is charged with "produc[ing] national intelligence estimates for the United States Government, including alternative views held by elements of the intelligence community.

The National Intelligence Council "is a center of strategic thinking within the US Government, reporting to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and providing the President and senior policymakers with analyses of foreign policy issues that have been reviewed and coordinated throughout the Intelligence Community."

According to the NIC, NIEs:

NIEs are the DNI's most authoritative written judgments concerning national security issues. They contain the coordinated judgments of the Intelligence Community regarding the likely course of future events. The NIC's goal is to provide policymakers with the best, unvarnished, and unbiased information—regardless of whether analytic judgments conform to US policy.

According to the CIA:

A National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) is the most authoritative written judgment concerning a national security issue prepared by the Director of Central Intelligence. Unlike "current intelligence" products, which describe the present, most NIEs forecast future developments and many address their implications for the United States. NIEs cover a wide range of issue-from military to technological to economic to political trends.

NIEs are addressed to the highest level of policymakers-up to and including the President. They are often drafted in response to a specific request from a policymaker. Estimates are designed not just to provide information but to help policymakers think through issues. They are prepared by CIA with the participation of other agencies of the Intelligence Community and are coordinated with these agencies. When there are alternative views about a subject within the Intelligence Community, the NIEs include such views.

NIC Personnel
The director of the NIC is Dr. Thomas Fingar. According to the website, he "was Assistant Secretary of the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) from July 2004 until May 2005 when he was named Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman, National Intelligence Council. While at the State Department he served as Acting Assistant Secretary for Intelligence and Research (2003-2004 and 2000-2001), Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary (2001-2003), Deputy Assistant Secretary for Analysis (1994-2000), Director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-1994), and Chief of the China Division (1986-1989)."

Also from the official website: Dr. David Gordon is Vice Chairman, a position he has held since June 2004. "Previously, he served as Director of CIA's Office of Transnational Issues (OTI), an office that covers a broad array of critical national security issues, including global energy and economic security, corruption and illicit financial activity, foreign denial and deception programs, and societal and humanitarian conflicts.

Dr. Gordon joined CIA in May 1998, when he was appointed National Intelligence Officer for Economics and Global Issues on the NIC. He directed major analytic projects on country-level economic and financial crises, emerging infectious disease risks, global demographic trends, and the changing geopolitics of energy, as well as provided leadership for the NIC's seminal Global Trends 2015 report.

Next: NIE History, FOIA