Clinton Leading In Traditional Democratic States ...
Voters in traditional (read on for definition) Democratic states aren't as divided as the Democratic party as a whole seems to be this primary season, based on an analysis of presidential elections since 1976 (when Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford).
Recall that VP Gore would have taken the White House had he been declared the winner in Florida, a key state that holds 27 electoral votes in 2008. If we look at popular vote counts in the states that voted for the Democratic candidate for President in two of these four elections (1976, 1988, 1992, 2000), Sen. Clinton trumps Sen. Obama by 224 electoral votes to 133 electoral votes. Reduce that to three of the four elections, and Sen. Clinton beats Sen. Obama by 68 electoral votes to 51 votes.
Look at the truly hard-core Democratic states -- those that voted for the Democratic candidate (this includes Dukakis) in all four elections. Clinton still beats Obama. The states: DC (3), Hawaii (4), Massachusetts (12), Minnesota (10), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Wisconsin (10). Electoral votes: 47 to 27.
When we analyze the states that put Jimmy Carter into the White House, Clinton gets 166 votes and Obama only 113. Two of these states (13 votes) have yet to hold their primaries (Kentucky and West Virginia). The gap widens when we look at the states that went for Gore in 2000: Clinton gets 160 votes and Obama only 93, with one state yet to hold its primary (Oregon, 7 votes).
Yes, this analysis includes Florida and Michigan. Sue me. I'm simply looking at statewide results, because they show potential party member (voter) dissatisfaction.
This is evidence that Clinton's support is more fundamental to party cohesion and history than suggested by mainstream media pundits. It gives credence to my thoughts about party crack-up, as well. And it shows that the super-delegates have their job cut out for them, assuming that their priority is electability. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
See the data: Presidential Campaign: Results by State, 1972-2004; Democratic Primary Results, 2008.
Related:
North Carolina v Indiana
Nomination Process Reveals A Fractured America
Should Clinton Stay Or Should She Go?, from About's Guide to Women's Issues
Indiana & North Carolina, Conservatively Speaking, from About's Guide to Conservative Politics
Game Over. Obama Won. Clinton Supporters in Induced Denial., from About's Guide to Liberal Politics
Added: Why didn't I include 1972? Because McGovern only won two states: MA and DC.