Mainstream media rarely provide context for the poll results of the day. We're doing just that for approval ratings for President Bush using trend data from the Washington Post. Approval ratings for the economy and the war in Iraq have dropped below 50 percent. However, the overall approval rating for President Bush reflects that state of the nation in November 2000: we remain a nation divided.

The same questions were asked over a period from Feb. 25, 2001 to July 11, 2004. The same methodology was used to select and question a representative sample of randomly selected adults (not all are self-described registered voters). The margin of error is +/- 3 points.

A poll of actual voters or polls with different questions might yield different results. Polling data from actual voters are often used to forecast election results, operating under the premise that post voters are likely to vote in subsequent elections.

Presidential Approval Ratings
What's surprising about the data is that in general, Americans disapprove of the President's handling of the war in Iraq and with his handling of the economy (difference in approval and disapproval is greater than the margin of error) ... and yet they are equally split, statistically, as to his overall handling of the job of the Presidency.

On July 11, 2004, only 48 percent of those polled approved of how President Bush is handling the White House and 50 percent disapproved. In comparison, at the end of his term, President George H. W. Bush had an approval rating of 56 percent (see table below).

Approval Ratings : Iraq
Public opinion on the President's handling of the war in Iraq has trended steadily downward, dropping sharply between April 30, 2003 and July 10, 2003. There was a spike in approval ratings when Saddam Hussain was captured in December. But, since February of 2004, more people have disapproved than approved of the war.

On July 11, 2004, only 43 percent of those polled approved of how President Bush is handling the war in Iraq and 55 percent disapproved.

Approval Ratings: The Economy
Two days before planes crashed into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, Americans were tied -- 48 percent to 48 percent -- on the President's handling of the economy. The next Washington Post poll to ask "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy?" saw a phenomenal spike in approval ratings, to 72 percent. However, the trend since that time has been downward.

On July 11, 2004, only 45 percent of those polled approved of how President Bush is handling the economy and 53 percent disapproved.

See Also:

• Historical Presidential Approval Ratings - End of Term
• Current Data Accessible Here
• News about presidential approval ratings
• Presidential End-of-Term Approval Ratings
• July 2004 Analysis
• September 2004 Analysis