Rationale
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, scientific research suggests that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions will cause global average temperatures to rise by 1.4 – 5.8°C by the end of the century. This temperature increase will affect weather patterns, water resources, the cycling of the seasons, ecosystems and extreme climate events.The primary argument among scientists is not whether or not global temperatures are increasing. The disagreement is over two points: how much will temperatures rise and what are the causes of the increase (man-made or nature).
Evidence that temperatures are rising include melting of mountain glaciers and Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice; reduced ice cover on lakes and rivers; and changes in the arrival and departure dates of migratory birds.
Evidence of increased greenhouse gases are measurable: The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased by 31 percent since 1750. "The present CO2 concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and likely not during the past 20 million years. The current rate of increase is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 years."
As in any scientific debate, consensus does not mean unanimity. Dr. S. Fred Singer is a prominent US critic of UN documents on climate change. Many of his published critiques date from and rely on data from before 2000.
Economic Incentives, Impacts
The treaty contains provisions for emissions trading. Countries with emissions below their targets may sell their emission credits to other nations, with some conditions. For example, in April 2001, The Netherlands purchased carbon dioxide emissions credits from Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic.The United States opposes the treaty, in large part due to economic effects: reduced reliance on coal affects electricity, reduced reliance on gasoline affects transporation.
One of the criticisms of the Kyoto treaty was impacts on gasoline prices. Testimony from 1999 -- citing the economic dangers of Kyoto -- forecast an increase in gasoline prices "of as much as 53 percent." according to AAA, in August 1999 the average national price of gasoline was $1.255 per gallon; in mid-August 2004, the national average was $1.841 per gallon. The big jump was from 2004 to 2005; even before Katrina, prices were up dramatically: mid-August 2005 saw a national average of $2.61 per gallon.
This 100+ percent increase (base 1999) is far more than the ACCF testimony asserted would be crippling to the the economy over a 10+ year period.
Where it Stands
The only major industrial nations not signing the treaty are the United States (36.1% emissions) and Australia (2.1% emissions). The following list of selected industrialized nations provides ratification date, country and percent of total emissions:- March 2001 - Romania (first Annex 1 nation) - 1.2%
- May 2002 - European Union - 24.2%
- June 2002 - Japan - 8.5%
- December 2002 - Canada - 3.3%
- November 2004 - Russia - 17.4%